There is a story from The Independent today that purports to explain the reason Iran put the snatch on fifteen British marines. Short form, the US sent a team in January to grab two senior Iranian security folks, specifically Mohammed Jafari, head of the Iranian National Security Council and Minojahar Fouzanda, chief intelligence officer of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The two guys were in Kurdistan at a long-established Iranian liaison office in Arbil.
The US team flew in and tried to put the grab on big ones failed so they grabbed five junior Iranian officers instead. The whereabouts of the five captured Iranians is unknown, at least according to the article. The supposition is that ten weeks later, in retaliation, the Iranian government puts the hook on fifteen British marines offshore of Iran.
If true, it puts a whole new complexion on the Iran hostage story. Based on the article, then deducting 50% for spin and the endemic Middle East bull factor, it means the US was doing things they shouldn’t have been doing. It means the US government is behaving like cowboys again, ignoring such niceties as borders, diplomacy, international relations, treaties and talking.
The whole situation could be a chess game to ‘justify’ attacks on Iran by Britain and the US. The US doesn’t want any more scrutiny of how badly they’re doing in Iraq. John McCain’s stage show of the safety of the Green Zone, is so much manure to be laughable if he weren’t so earnest.
A new war, with different players, on three fronts (Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan) is a distraction that works, especially if you add the Iran Has Nukes overlay. Add a dash of Israel freelancing against Iran, with military air traffic controllers looking the other way, as Israeli jets bomb the snot out of the Iranian nuclear facilities. Would President Jo Jo The Idiot Boy use something like that? No, but Shotgun Dick and Kousin Karl would.
There has been some whispers that the various insurgent groups are waiting for an important date to kick off a new round of madness. Good Friday is a big date on the Christian calendar and it is in keeping with things like the Tet Offensive or the Yom Kippur war. With the religious overtone that Iraq and Afghanistan both have, Good Friday is an appealing occasion to say "Screw You And Jesus Too!" Good Friday is also about halfway through Passover this year.
There are too many dangling threads that might tie up in a very violent way.